We present our Week Seven NFL predictions and picks and lead with the main point that we are issuing game-by-game forecasts and tracking both straight-up and against-the-spread results. I state that Ed holds a one-game lead in straight-up picks and that our against-the-spread tracking shows Ed would be up $920 while I would be down $1,810. We go through individual game picks, including Bears over Patriots, Steelers over Saints, 49ers over Falcons, Browns over Titans, Vikings over Colts, Jets over Dolphins, Panthers over Bucs, Bengals over Ravens, Texans over Giants, Broncos over Cardinals, Lions over Packers, Rams over Raiders, Chiefs over Seahawks, and conflicting calls on Eagles vs Cowboys. I note broader themes and concerns such as trouble in the NFC West, the impact of injuries to key wide receivers, and how thin margins can change team fortunes. We invite listeners to follow our picks and to return next week for results and new predictions.
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Transcript
Hello, my football friends.
Speaker A:This is Darren Hayes of pigskindispatch.com welcome once again to the Pig Pen, your portal to positive football history and welcome to Prediction Day.
Speaker A:We are getting ready to have an NFL game tonight that'll kick off week seven.
Speaker A:And our friend Ed Cleese joins us to tell us about his thoughts on how the games will go this weekend.
Speaker A:Ed, welcome back to the Pig Pen.
Speaker B:Hello, Darren.
Speaker B:How are you?
Speaker B:Ed?
Speaker A:I am doing great.
Speaker A:I'm looking forward to another great weekend of football and some fun and exciting and the unexpected, which always makes it interesting to be a football fan.
Speaker A:And so what are you thinking about the.
Speaker A:This week coming up?
Speaker B:Well, you bounced back last week, Darren.
Speaker B:You can't.
Speaker B:You did.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:Our, you know, we're tracking our picks both straight up and against the spread this year.
Speaker B:I now have just a one game lead over you straight up.
Speaker B:I've got 53 wins, you've got 52.
Speaker B:And you know, with the, with the, against the spread, what we're doing is we're tracking money because what, what else matters?
Speaker B:So if you're betting a hundred dollars a game based on our picks and we're factoring in the vig so far, you made up a little bit of ground this weekend, but nothing too crazy.
Speaker B:If you would have followed all of my picks to week six, you will have earned yourself $920.
Speaker B:And conversely, if you were following Darren's picks, your picks, Darren, so far you would have lost $1,810.
Speaker A:All right, so I made up $90.
Speaker B:You made up $90 from last week?
Speaker A:Yeah, I thought I was hoping to be better than that, but.
Speaker B:You're on a roll.
Speaker A:I'm on a roll.
Speaker B:You're on a roll.
Speaker B:Yep.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:So.
Speaker A:Okay, so I was, I was really excited, you know, that I picked a couple out of there, like the Cleveland game.
Speaker A:I, I picked, I was, I was stoked about that.
Speaker A:I was stoked about what was the other upset we had.
Speaker B:You didn't have the Cardinals.
Speaker A:I didn't have the Cardinals or the Titans, but yeah, you had this.
Speaker B:You had the Saints, you had the Saints winning.
Speaker B:Yeah, the Saints winning.
Speaker B:You had Houston.
Speaker B:You had Houston.
Speaker B:That was your other upset.
Speaker A:Right, Right.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:And I like the Vegas with the points.
Speaker B:I. Yep, some of those, some of those underdogs keep tripping you up, but otherwise you, you got a much better week.
Speaker B:Much better.
Speaker A:All right, well, do you want to get into this week's picks?
Speaker B:Let's jump.
Speaker B:Let's get right into it.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker B:All right.
Speaker B:So we're going to start on Thursday night like we always do, with the New England Patriots traveling to Chicago where the Bears are three point favorites.
Speaker B:I'm have a little bit of a theme here because I'm kind of on the fence on a lot of these games.
Speaker B:I.
Speaker B:Both of these teams are looking pretty good right now.
Speaker B:The Thursday thing always screws things up.
Speaker B:It's always very difficult to get a gauge for me, I'm just gonna go with the home team here.
Speaker B:I'm gonna say the Bears win it, but the Patriots cover.
Speaker A:All right.
Speaker A:I like that idea.
Speaker A:I think the, the whole.
Speaker A:It's tough for a visiting team to win on the road.
Speaker A:Now.
Speaker A:They were just talking about on Sirius Radio earlier today when I was listening and, and they've looked at the last three years of Thursday night games, not counting the, the holiday games, the Thanksgivings and the Christmases that we had over the last few years, just.
Speaker A:And the opening week, just the Thursday night games.
Speaker A:Teams are like 10 and 20 or something like that.
Speaker A:It's like they've won only 33% of the games.
Speaker A:The visiting team has won those games.
Speaker A:So two thirds of the time it's the home team.
Speaker A:So I, I'm also taking Chicago, but I think they're going to cover the spread as well.
Speaker B:Okay, got you going on to Paris where maybe you don't want to go on to.
Speaker B:Right now we've got your Steelers, our three and a half point favorites against the Saints.
Speaker B:This is kind of like a mind explosion game for me because this is one team that I've doubted somewhat to my detriment so far this year, the Steelers.
Speaker B:And another team that I've kind of propped up somewhat to my detriment this year is the Saints.
Speaker B:So I'm finally going to learn my lesson a little bit.
Speaker B:I'm going to split the difference.
Speaker B:I'm going to, going to say this is a close game.
Speaker B:I'm going to say the Steelers pull it out again, but the Saints are going to cover that three and a half.
Speaker A:Okay, so three and a half.
Speaker A:Okay, I'm going to, I'm going to stick to my guns here.
Speaker A:I'm going to take the Steelers in this game and I, what I said earlier is I've had, I think the New England or New Orleans is going to cover also.
Speaker A:So I'm going to stick, stick with that.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:We've got the 49ers who are three point favorites at Atlanta.
Speaker B:This may seem like a little bit of a low spread and that kind of gives me Some pause, but I do think there are some chinks in the armor right now for the 49ers despite their 60 record.
Speaker B:And it's really just health.
Speaker B:At some point you have to feel like it's going to trip them up a little bit.
Speaker B:I actually don't think it's going to be this week.
Speaker B:I do think they're going to go into Atlanta, get the win and they're going to cover it.
Speaker B:But this is not going to be an easy game.
Speaker A:Yeah, I am right on board with you.
Speaker A:I think San Fran and the points.
Speaker B:Okay, the.
Speaker B:The Browns.
Speaker B:The Browns.
Speaker B:The first place Browns are one and a half point favorites at the Titans and I'm pretty sure I know exactly what people are going to think.
Speaker B:They are going to think that this line is too low, that the Browns are rolling, the Titans are not any good and that Cleveland's going to go in there and win and everybody's going to be wrong because Tennessee is going to win this game outright.
Speaker B:They're going to win similarly to how the Browns won last week.
Speaker B:A low scoring three point game.
Speaker B:That's what's going to happen in Tennessee again.
Speaker B:Except this time the Titans win.
Speaker A:You know, as a fan of an opponent in the AFC North, I'd love to see that, but I don't think it's going to happen.
Speaker A:I think the Browns win it and cover the points.
Speaker B:Okay, we've got the Colts who are falling apart at the Vikings who are six and a half point favorites.
Speaker B:I really wanted to pick an upset here.
Speaker B:I'm still just not sold on the Vikings.
Speaker B:I am doubting them quite a bit and this just kind of seems like one of those games that leave everybody scratching their head at the end of the week.
Speaker B:But gosh, I just can't pick the Colts right now.
Speaker B:They're just, they look so blah sort of in all facets.
Speaker B:So I'll pick the Vikings to win, the Colts to cover.
Speaker A:I look at this and would you say the point spread is on this half?
Speaker A:Six and a half?
Speaker A:I don't know.
Speaker A:I don't get it.
Speaker A:I mean somebody seeing something I don't because I think this should probably be more like almost double digits or nine and a half or something.
Speaker A:I think it is because I think Minnesota is going to win by that much and they'll definitely.
Speaker A:I'll take that.
Speaker A:I'll take that.
Speaker A:Six and a half.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:Dolphins are at the jets where the home team is four and a half point favorites.
Speaker B:I'm sorry, that's just too many points.
Speaker B:For the jets to be laying right now, I obviously the Dolphins aren't great, but they are off of a buy.
Speaker B:This is a divisional game.
Speaker B:The jets are not very good either.
Speaker B:So I'm going to pick the jets to scratch out a win at home with the Dolphins to cover.
Speaker A:I'm identical to you on the pick.
Speaker B:Okay, we've got the Bucs at the Panthers.
Speaker B:The home team there is three and a half point favorites.
Speaker B:Again, a game.
Speaker B:I'm being kind of a weenie here, Darren, and I'm not picking.
Speaker B:I'm picking covers but not upsets.
Speaker B:I'm going to do it again.
Speaker B:This is going to be a really tough game.
Speaker B:The Bucks are going to play the Panthers similarly to how they played the Steelers last week.
Speaker B:But Carolina will win it late.
Speaker B:So Panthers win, Bucs cover.
Speaker A:I disagree with you a little bit.
Speaker A:I think Carolina is going to win this and they're going to win this big by more than a touchdown.
Speaker B:Okay, we've got the Bengals.
Speaker B:Another AFC north game at the Ravens, Baltimore three point favorites.
Speaker B:I hesitated on this because I think this is another one that people are going to think is a little bit off.
Speaker B:I'm going to pick the upset here.
Speaker B:Again, a team coming off a bye week that was coming off a loss last week.
Speaker B:I kind of liked what I saw from Cincinnati prior earlier in the year.
Speaker B:I think they're going to kind of roll it over into this road game.
Speaker B:This will be a hard fought game but the Bengals are going to win the game outright and then of course they will cover.
Speaker A:This one gave me a little bit of pause because not sure what's going on with Lamar.
Speaker A:I think he's probably going to end up playing this week.
Speaker A:I think that all arrows are pointed out from least from what I'm hearing but I don't think it's going to matter because I think.
Speaker A:I agree with you.
Speaker A:I think Cincinnati wins this game outright.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:The Giants are.
Speaker B:This, this has got to be a rarity.
Speaker B:The, the team with the winning record.
Speaker B:The Giants are at the Texans who have a losing record and the team with the losing record is Double digit favorites, 10.5 favorites.
Speaker B:That really sticks out to me.
Speaker B:I'm.
Speaker B:I'm picking the Texans because I, I think they're on a roll now.
Speaker B:But it's funny, I think they're on a roll offensively.
Speaker B:All of a sudden.
Speaker B:Their offense looks totally rejuvenated.
Speaker B:They've opened things up.
Speaker B:They're spreading the ball around.
Speaker B:Having Nico Collins back is like an epiphany for that offense.
Speaker B:It makes all the difference in the world.
Speaker B:They've got Marvin Harrison.
Speaker A:Marvin Harrison.
Speaker B:They get Tank Dell back this week, it sounds like.
Speaker B:So they've got a lot more weapons coming.
Speaker B:So I'm going to pick Houston to win this game and cover on the strength of their offense.
Speaker A:I think Houston is going to win it.
Speaker A:But that nine point, would you say nine and a half, 10, 10.
Speaker A:That's a lot of points to give up.
Speaker A:And the Giants are not horrible at playing defense, so I think it's going to be a little bit closer.
Speaker A:Can they score points?
Speaker A:Who knows.
Speaker A:But I think they will keep it within the 10 points.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:Broncos are at the Cardinals.
Speaker B:Denver are four and a half point favorites.
Speaker B:They Denver has a bonix problem.
Speaker B:This is getting bad.
Speaker B:It's getting very difficult to watch and they might have to do something that and Arizona is coming off of a pretty inspiring win.
Speaker B:That said, I'm always a little wary of the teams that I don't think are very good that have come off a win because I think there's often a regression or a law of averages that comes into play.
Speaker B:So I'm going to pick Denver to win this game by about a touchdown and cover the spread.
Speaker A:I am too, unless somebody tells me that this game is going to be played at SoFi like we talked about yesterday.
Speaker B:There you go.
Speaker B:Yes, no, but no, I think Cardinals and so far, yeah.
Speaker B:Moving on to Detroit, we have the packers who are three point underdogs at the Lions.
Speaker B:This is a tough one.
Speaker B:Green Bay looks really good, really resurgent all of a sudden.
Speaker B:Their receivers are really good and Love looks locked in, kind of like he seems to always do around this time of the year where he kind of locks in.
Speaker B:But I'm going to pick the home team here.
Speaker B:Another team coming off a buy.
Speaker B:I'm very wary of that Lions defense, but maybe they figured something out during that extra time.
Speaker B:So I'm going to say this is a back and forth game, a close game that the Lions win and cover at the end.
Speaker A:I think the Lions, they're right on the verge.
Speaker A:I heard Dan Campbell talking earlier.
Speaker A:There's a chance that they may get two of their starting secondary players back for this game.
Speaker A:It's not.
Speaker A:Not sure yet, but they're right on the bubble and they're being a home game.
Speaker A:I think golf is just playing out of his mind right now.
Speaker A:We talked about it, you know, last week before they had their buy, how the record he's been setting, not this guy's not turning the ball over and they are an explosive offense and they have one of the heaviest pass rushes of anybody in the NFL.
Speaker A:People don't realize that because the secondary is getting toasted so badly, but I, I think that they're going to pull it off in this rivalry game and they're going to take the points too, from Green Bay.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:The Rams are four and a half point favorites at the Raiders.
Speaker B:I would just say tread lightly on this game.
Speaker B:I'm going to pick the Rams to win just because I have such a hard time seeing them go to 2 and 5.
Speaker B:I've got a few more things to say about that in a minute, but I'm going to pick Vegas to have a very similar game that they just had against Buffalo, but where they keep it really close.
Speaker B:It's tight, but they can't quite get over the hump at the end.
Speaker A:I think they pull it off this week.
Speaker A:I think I'm taking the Raiders to win this game outright.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:Chiefs Sunday night are at the Seahawks.
Speaker B:Who are the.
Speaker B:Seattle is three point favorite again.
Speaker B:I want to talk about this a bit more in a minute, but I'm going to take the Chiefs to win this game and cover.
Speaker A:Yep, I'm right on with you.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:And then Monday night we talk about that NFC east battle.
Speaker B:We've got the Cowboys four and a half point favorites at the Eagles.
Speaker B:This is a really hard one to handicap.
Speaker B:It's hard to know what the Eagles motivation is also right now a little bit.
Speaker A:It's hard to even know who their.
Speaker B:Quarterback is going to be.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Are they just going to be the year where they just pack it in?
Speaker B:I don't know, but I'm going to for at least one more week.
Speaker B:I'm going to say that the Eagles kind of dig down and they figure some things out, play with a lot of pride at home on national tv.
Speaker B:And I think they're going to win this game outright and obviously cover the four and a half.
Speaker A:I think opposite, because I'm.
Speaker A:I'm not too high and I think the Eagles are just in a tailspin, no pun intended.
Speaker A:But they, they're hurting.
Speaker A:They've lost a lot of leadership on their team as well as star athletes, and it's the core of their team that's really shaken here.
Speaker A:And I think Dallas is trying to, you know, find themselves a little bit.
Speaker A:This might be the week that Dallas does, and I think they're going to end up scoring more than the.
Speaker A:The point spread and win this game.
Speaker B:Okay, well, that's your week.
Speaker A:All right.
Speaker A:So what are Your thoughts here as we enter into Week seven.
Speaker A:What are some things that are maybe on your mind here?
Speaker B:I want to talk a little bit that those NFC west teams and how.
Speaker B:I think both the Rams and the Seahawks are in a little bit of danger zone right now.
Speaker B:And I don't mean that because of the record, that they can't bounce back from it because 2 and 4 and 3 and 3 is no real big deal.
Speaker B:But this happens usually pretty much every year.
Speaker B:There's like a team or two that we keep thinking, oh, they'll turn it around, they'll turn it around, they'll turn it around.
Speaker B:And.
Speaker B:And now I'm wondering, I don't know, because I think both of them have real problems with the Rams.
Speaker B:This is an aging team now, and they're hurt, and Adams is out pretty much for the year.
Speaker B:That's a big blow.
Speaker B:Stafford doesn't look quite the same.
Speaker B:He can still sling it, but he doesn't look quite the same.
Speaker B:They're.
Speaker B:They're not great on either line of scrimmage.
Speaker B:Now, I realize at some point they're going to get Miles Garrett back, but, you know, it's hard to see him making that big of a difference at this point.
Speaker B:So I think the Rams are in some real trouble here.
Speaker B:McVeigh looks tired, for lack of a better word to me.
Speaker A:He's married this year, so maybe.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Really?
Speaker B:Exactly.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:There you go.
Speaker A:I'll drag anybody down.
Speaker B:That'll do it.
Speaker B:That'll do it.
Speaker B:And in Seattle, there has to be a part of everybody, including Seahawks fans, that's like, maybe Darnold is turning into a pumpkin again.
Speaker B:Meaning maybe last year was the exception.
Speaker B:Maybe.
Speaker B:Maybe the guy that.
Speaker B:That played every other year of his career is who Sam Darnold actually is.
Speaker B:And last year was sort of like his.
Speaker B:Everything went lined up and went well, and he.
Speaker B:He was able to kind of get it done and lead a team because he has not looked good this year.
Speaker B:He's looked really bad in the fourth quarters of games.
Speaker B:And, you know, we're six games in now.
Speaker B:I know he missed a couple, but, you know, at some point, and they're missing Walker, they're missing their weapons, they're not running the ball as well.
Speaker B:So right now, their offense is basically chuck it up to JSN and Prayer.
Speaker A:I think you hit the nail right on the head, and I was just going to comment on that.
Speaker A:One thing he's lacking from last year is that running game.
Speaker A:That's a quarterback's best friend.
Speaker A:That sort of sets A tone for the offense that makes the defense respect you a little bit when they can just pin their ears back and come after you because they know the only way you're going to move the ball is to throw it.
Speaker A:That's an advantage.
Speaker A:Defense, when offenses are balanced, that's when the defense is at the disadvantage.
Speaker A:So I think that makes a big difference to a quarterback and how they're going to perform.
Speaker A:And, you know, you can even say that maybe about, you know, Stafford with the Rams.
Speaker A:The running game is not what it was last year.
Speaker A:They don't have, you know, the threats that they had, you know, is being balanced with teams can, you know, put, you know, don't load.
Speaker A:You don't have to load the box up.
Speaker A:You can play a little bit more guys in the secondary, and you can send your pass rushers after the quarterback.
Speaker A:And that makes a big difference.
Speaker B:I think it's just a reminder of just how thin the margins are in the NFL in general.
Speaker B:You.
Speaker B:Every year you've got two or three teams that are probably a cut above the fray, and two or three teams that just are just don't have the roster to compete.
Speaker B:And then everybody else is a thread away from either 6 wins or 11 wins or anywhere in between.
Speaker B:And, you know, it's a bounce here, a bump there.
Speaker B:So some of these teams that they look like they're going to be juggernauts, you know, you have a few things go wrong.
Speaker B:The wrong guy gets hurt, you lose the wrong guy in free agency, one player regresses a little, and all of a sudden that 13 wins becomes 9 wins, the 10 wins become 6, or the 6 becomes 11.
Speaker B:It really is incredible how we're reminded about that every year, and we sort of all fall forward every year anyway.
Speaker A:Yeah, I think it's kind of incredible what's happening this year.
Speaker A:There seems to be, like a shortage of wide receivers.
Speaker A:You know, we always hear a little bit about.
Speaker A:But this last weekend, boy, you know, McLaurin goes down, Adams is gone.
Speaker A:Pittman, Roman Wilson, you know, there's a Mike Evans.
Speaker A:Mike Evans, Yeah.
Speaker A:I mean, these are guys that were a week ago.
Speaker A:We're saying these guys are, you know, right at the top of the line.
Speaker A:And wide receivers, they're.
Speaker B:They're.
Speaker A:Many of them aren't going to play the rest of the season.
Speaker A:And that really now there's like, a shortage of receivers.
Speaker A:And I'm thinking, where are all these pass catchers from the college game that, you know, we watch every college game and their teams are throwing a ball all over the place and guys are making astounding catches.
Speaker A:What's going on?
Speaker A:Why can't those receivers in great numbers pan out and go up into the NFL?
Speaker A:Or maybe we will see that happen now they have some opportunity, right?
Speaker B:Yeah, it's a, it's a, it's a, it's attrition.
Speaker B:It really is a war of attrition.
Speaker B:It is, it is survival game and we see it every week in the NFL, every year.
Speaker B:And it makes it compelling.
Speaker A:Yeah, it sure does.
Speaker A:Well, you have any final thoughts, Ed, or.
Speaker B:No, I don't.
Speaker B:My team is off this week and I, I, you know, they need to buy and so do I. Yeah, I'm.
Speaker A:Sure they do and I'm sure you do.
Speaker A:It's been a rough couple weeks here and everybody, you know, the land of the commanders could use a little bit of rest here.
Speaker B:Yes.
Speaker A:If you haven't checked it out, folks, we talked about the commanders quite a bit last year.
Speaker A:Not only with Ed last week, we also had Mike Richmond on earlier this week talking about the Pro Washington Pro Football Encyclopedia, the new version that he has out.
Speaker A:He was the original author of it 20 some years ago.
Speaker A:Now he's got some of these commanders highlights and, you know, some more stats for the last 20 some years included in this.
Speaker A:So it's a great, great podcast, great book and great listen.
Speaker A:So make sure you check that out.
Speaker A:And we have plenty more coming up next week.
Speaker A:We'll be with Ed to talk about the results of week seven and of course next Thursday with the predictions for it.
Speaker A:We have a lot more stuff coming up at you too here as we go on.
Speaker A:So, Ed, we enjoyed talking to you today and we will talk to you again next week.
Speaker B:Thanks, Darren.
Speaker B:See you next week.
Speaker A:Peeking up at the clock the time's running down.
Speaker A:We're gonna go into victory formation Take a knee and let this baby run out.
Speaker A:Thanks for joining us.
Speaker A:We'll see you back tomorrow for the next podcast.
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