The central point is that we present our Week Six NFL game predictions and discuss the betting results to date. I am Darren Hayes and I am joined by Ed Cleese as we make picks both straight up and against the spread. We note that Ed leads the spread standings and has net winnings, while I have sustained losses. We give specific game calls, including Seahawks over Broncos, Texans over the Jaguars in London, and New Orleans over the Giants, and we debate several close contests. We review team form, injuries, and coaching impacts and offer cautious guidance on wagering. We invite you to visit PigskinDispatch.com for more history and analysis and we will return with further predictions next week.
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We present a focused and methodical review of our Week Six prognostications and the reasoning that undergirds each selection. I recount the ledger of our season to date, noting that Ed presently leads in both straight-up and spread success and that the financial accounting we maintain has yielded divergent outcomes for our listeners depending upon whether they follow spread advice. We proceed to adjudicate each game in chronological order: Seattle at Denver, Houston in London versus Jacksonville, Chicago at Atlanta, Baltimore at Cleveland, Tennessee at Indianapolis, New England at New York, New Orleans at New York, Philadelphia at Carolina, Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay, Los Angeles Rams at Arizona, Kansas City at Los Angeles Chargers, Buffalo at Las Vegas, Dallas at Green Bay, and San Francisco at Washington. I supply succinct verdicts on winners and likely covers, and we emphasize prudence where uncertainty prevails, especially in rivalry matchups and contests impacted by travel and recent emotional swings.
Transcript
Friends, this is Darren Hayes of Pigskind dispatch.com welcome once again to the Pig Pen, your portal to positive football history.
Speaker A:And welcome to week six.
Speaker A:We are just hours away from kickoff of the first game and Ed Cleese joins me as we make our weekly predictions on your NFL games.
Speaker A:Ed, welcome back to the Pig Pen.
Speaker B:Hello, Darren.
Speaker A:I Ed, this is a great week to make some picks.
Speaker A:I, I think I had, I've had a lot of trouble so far this year, but I've got a new strategy and, and I think I'm, I'm all set for this.
Speaker B:Okay, well is the strategy like you have like a, like a monkey in the house that's going to run around and like point at things and maybe do it that way?
Speaker A:No, I have a coin and I'm just flipping it and.
Speaker B:All right, well, as we know, we're doing it two ways this year.
Speaker B:We're doing it straight up and against the spread.
Speaker B:Straight up.
Speaker B:Darren, you're not doing too bad.
Speaker B:You're 42, 36 and 1.
Speaker B:That's four games behind me, straight up.
Speaker B:But wow, when we talk about the spread and the best way to do the spread, Darren, is really to look at the money that we would have won or lost.
Speaker B:And we're doing it by if you bet a hundred dollars on every pick and we're factoring in the vig or the, you know, the juice or whatever you want to call it.
Speaker B:If you follow my picks, Darren, so far I have won you almost $1,100.
Speaker B:So far this year I'm at $1,090 and Darren, my goodness, if they're listening to you, they are $1,850 in the hole.
Speaker A:Oh my gosh, I doubled my loss in one week, huh?
Speaker B:Yes.
Speaker B:Yeah, so just, just so you know, I'm 45, 31 and three against the spread.
Speaker B:You're 31, 45 and three.
Speaker A:Oh boy.
Speaker A:Yeah, I'm glad I don't.
Speaker B:You got some making up to do.
Speaker A:I'm glad I don't bet on games and yeah, we're, but we're saving it all for the end.
Speaker A:This is a strong finish.
Speaker B:Yes.
Speaker B:You're probably getting a lot of calls from bookies right now offering you really good buy in deals.
Speaker A:Yeah, I think, yeah, DraftKings and FanDuel, they're giving me all kinds of great offers.
Speaker A:I don't understand why.
Speaker A:All right, all right, well, let's start with that Thursday game because this is kind of intriguing.
Speaker A:What do you got going on on this?
Speaker B:Let's do it.
Speaker B:We got the Seahawks actually two and a half point favorites on the road at the Broncos.
Speaker B:You know, I, I'm wary of this game because my gut tells me Seattle bounces back because I have not been terribly impressed with Denver.
Speaker B:But as we're seeing it is so hard to repeat.
Speaker B:It is just a harder road.
Speaker B:Things are more difficult.
Speaker B:So I'm going to go ahead and and pick the Seahawks to win this game and barely cover it as well.
Speaker B:But I would say stay away from this game if you're gambling.
Speaker A:Well, you know me, I don't like to stay away from games so I'm gonna lose some more money here.
Speaker A:But I'm going to take Seattle to win this game.
Speaker A:But I don't think that they beat the spread.
Speaker A:I think Denver's within two and a half on them on their one or two.
Speaker B:I like it.
Speaker B:I like it.
Speaker B:The Texans are at in London.
Speaker B:The Jaguars and the Jags are three point favorites.
Speaker B:This is actually a game I really like.
Speaker B:I've talked all year about how much I like the Jags, but I really like this spot for Houston.
Speaker B:I'm not sure they're going to have quite the turnaround we saw last year, but they are a far better team than they showed in their first four weeks.
Speaker B:They took out some frustration on the Titans.
Speaker B:I think they're going to go to London.
Speaker B:They're going to beat a team that's coming off a miracle win.
Speaker B:I think Jacksonville is going to wind up happy that they left London with one win.
Speaker B:Houston is going to win this game outright.
Speaker A:Yeah, I think that that two weeks in a row in London is going to have a little bit of effect on them.
Speaker A:They had a very big game over Philadelphia last week to Jacksonville.
Speaker A:Very emotional.
Speaker A:I think emotions on the other side.
Speaker A:The Texans are on a little bit of a roll.
Speaker A:I, I think they win this game outright.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:The Bears are three point favorites in Atlanta against the Falcons.
Speaker B:Another bounce back spot here that I like.
Speaker B:The Bears.
Speaker B:I think they go into Atlanta, I think we'll have to see about the quarterback situation for the Falcons.
Speaker B:But regardless, I think Chicago is just a better team and I think they are going to go into Atlanta and win this game by a touchdown.
Speaker A:I think they're going to win it, but I don't think they'll cover the points.
Speaker A:I think Caleb Williams is, from all reports I've seen, they are planning on playing him, especially after what happened last weekend.
Speaker A:They're itching to get him out there, but I think Atlanta is going to stay within that point spread.
Speaker A:But Chicago wins.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:Ravens are four and a half point favorites at the Browns.
Speaker B:I paused on this one.
Speaker B:I'm not a big fan of this game in general.
Speaker B:I'm a little weird, a little leery.
Speaker B:Either way, I'm going to give a shaky vote to the Ravens to win and cover.
Speaker B:I think ultimately the Browns really do have some offensive injury issues that are going to get exposed here in the coming weeks and it'll continue this week.
Speaker A:Yeah, there's a little bit of iffiness if Conception is going to play because he got that really bad hit, you know, illegal hit to the head.
Speaker A:End up giving in concussion protocol.
Speaker A:But this is a rivalry game.
Speaker A:Just like we saw the Thursday night against the Steelers.
Speaker A:Cleveland at home against division.
Speaker A:I think Cleveland's going to win this game outright.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:The Titans are at the Colts and Indy is the seven point favorite.
Speaker B:This game is gross.
Speaker B:This is not a very good game.
Speaker B:It's not very watchable.
Speaker B:We have a really, really bad team and a very slight, like a, like a below average team in the Colts.
Speaker B:There's not much to like here.
Speaker B:I'm gonna just kind of split the difference.
Speaker B:Say Indy wins an ugly game.
Speaker B:Tennessee hangs close and covers.
Speaker A:I think Indy wins and they cover.
Speaker A:So I think there'll be more than a touchdown that they'll win by.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:Jets are at the Patriots.
Speaker B:New England, coming off an extremely impressive win, are seven and a half point favorites.
Speaker B:Does this mean that New England is just going to start rolling like they did last year?
Speaker B:Not sure.
Speaker B:I don't think so.
Speaker B:I do think they win this game, but I think the jets are actually pretty salty and I'm going to pick the jets to cover.
Speaker A:I. I am almost identical.
Speaker A:I think New England wins this game, but it's.
Speaker A:It's another divisional game.
Speaker A:It's going to be rough for New England to win it big.
Speaker A:You know, they're again coming off an emotional thing, victory.
Speaker A:But I think they're going to hang with the jets or the jets are going to hang with them and stay within that point spread.
Speaker A:But you got New England winning when New England winning.
Speaker A:Jets will have the points.
Speaker B:Got it.
Speaker B:The Saints are one and a half point favorites at the Giants.
Speaker B:Fool me once, shame on me.
Speaker B:Fool me twice.
Speaker B:I guess.
Speaker B:Shame on me.
Speaker B:Fool me four times.
Speaker B:Well, then I guess I'm just an idiot.
Speaker B:So I'm going back to the well again with the Saints here.
Speaker B:I think they win this game and they're going to cover the one and a half.
Speaker B:I just think there's a better team in there that has been lurking and eventually I'll just have to admit I was wrong, but I'm not going to do it this week.
Speaker A:Well, I welcome you to the Idiot club because I'm also taking New Orleans to win this game.
Speaker B:Okay, Idiot club.
Speaker B:All right.
Speaker B:Remember the membership of two great the Panthers are at the Eagles.
Speaker B:Philly is a one and a half point favorite.
Speaker B:As much heck as I have given the Eagles and I've told you now since preseason that I really was very, very down on their offense and thought they would have some big problems this year, I'm going to give them a little respect with this pick.
Speaker B:I think this is going to be the Eagles game where they just find a way.
Speaker B:I'm not exactly sure how, but this is going to be kind of a.
Speaker B:They're going to dig down, they're going to figure out a way they're going to win this game.
Speaker B:16 To 13, 19 to 17, something like that.
Speaker A:I think it's going to go the other way.
Speaker A:I think, you know, I believe you now what you say about the Eagles, especially after I watch that offensive line.
Speaker A:I've been banking on that offensive defensive line all year long, giving them scores.
Speaker A:But I they proved that their offensive line is in shambles and they sort of self destructed them on their own on that.
Speaker A:But I think Carolina is on a little bit of an uptick.
Speaker A:They rested.
Speaker A:They're going to win this game.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:The Steelers, your Steelers are two and a half point favorites in Tampa.
Speaker B:I kind of feel like the Steelers are going to be this year's kind of like the roller coaster team.
Speaker B:I think.
Speaker B:I think the Steelers are going to beat up on bad teams for the most part.
Speaker B:I think they might struggle with certain other types of teams, decent teams.
Speaker B:And I'm going to go with the Bucks here to win this game outright.
Speaker B:I know the quarterback situation is, you know, up in the air still.
Speaker B:I don't think Baker's probably going to be back for this game so that, you know, obviously see if the rookie can do it two weeks in a row.
Speaker B:But I'm just picking the Bucks.
Speaker B:I think the Bucks win this game by.
Speaker B:By three.
Speaker A:So.
Speaker A:So by your comments you're saying you think the Bucks are a good team?
Speaker B:Yeah, I mean I kind of caught myself while I was saying that I should say.
Speaker B:Let me put it this way, Darren.
Speaker B:I guess I was trying to be nice.
Speaker B:I think that Steelers might be the most average team in the NFL and when you're really average, I think you kind of go up and down each week.
Speaker A:Well, I think the Steelers are sort of finding their identity now.
Speaker A:They're finally realizing, hey, we can give Jalen Warren the ball and he's going to make some good things happen.
Speaker A:You know, he's quickly becoming maybe one of the top 10 backs in the league, and he definitely showed it last week, both catching and running the ball.
Speaker A:I think their offense is starting to click.
Speaker A:They're scoring points.
Speaker A:The defense, they're still trying to figure some things out, but I think they purposely didn't pressure Daniel Jones because they didn't have to.
Speaker A:I think they turn up the heat a little bit on the rookie or Baker, whoever's in there.
Speaker A:And the Steelers are going to win this game.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:Got the Cardinals going to the Rams.
Speaker B:The Rams come off a very tough loss or 12 and a half point favorites.
Speaker B:You know, I think the easy thing to say here is the Rams bounce back with a kind of a resounding win, a big bounce back.
Speaker B:So I'm going to do that.
Speaker B:I'm going to say the Rams win and cover.
Speaker B:But there's part of me that thinks that maybe there's some real issues here with the Rams and that they're just not going to get to the heights that everybody, and myself included, expected.
Speaker A:Yeah, I'm not sure.
Speaker A:I think.
Speaker A:Is Miles Garrett due to come back?
Speaker B:I don't know if he's coming back this week or not.
Speaker A:I know the IR, I think, has been his four games.
Speaker A:I think he's eligible to come back.
Speaker A:Whether he's healthy enough to come back, that's another thing.
Speaker A:But I think they're pissed.
Speaker A:I think they're too well coached to be a 2 and 5 team or whatever it'll be.
Speaker A:If they lost this game, I think they're going to come out with a vengeance and they're going to blow Arizona.
Speaker B:Right out of the water.
Speaker A:And so you can give up the points on this one.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:Chargers are at the Chiefs.
Speaker B:Kansas City's 8 1/2 point favorites.
Speaker B:I just.
Speaker B:There's almost no words to describe what's going on with the Chargers.
Speaker B:They had a 17 to 10 lead with seven minutes to go and the ball, and they still somehow wound up losing.
Speaker B:And it was.
Speaker B:It didn't even feel like they had much of a chance at the end.
Speaker B:It's kind of wild how they.
Speaker B:How things just turn on them and they just turn the ball over.
Speaker B:It's so gross.
Speaker B:So Kansas City is going to win this game.
Speaker B:I'm kind of giving up on picking The Chargers.
Speaker B:But, you know, just because it's the NFL that is a big spread.
Speaker B:It's a division game.
Speaker B:I'm going to pick the Chargers to cover.
Speaker A:You know, I was tempted to take the Chargers to get their first win.
Speaker A:I'm just not brave enough to do it because I don't see any signs of life.
Speaker A:It's like, you know, watching one of those EKG machines.
Speaker A:It's a flat line is what it feels like.
Speaker A:There's just no excitement out of that coaching staff.
Speaker A:The players, they're talking about trading their quarterback away.
Speaker A:You know, it's just, it's just crazy talk out there.
Speaker A:And Kansas City's for real.
Speaker A:I think they're going to blow their doors off.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:The Bills are five and a half point favorites in Vegas.
Speaker B:So the Bills are prime.
Speaker B:Assuming they're just staying out west after their win over the Rams.
Speaker B:I'm going to pick Buffalo to win this game in Vegas to cover.
Speaker B:I think this is, I think this might be, this might be who Vegas is.
Speaker B:Meaning, you know, that they're going to, they're going to hang, but they're not going to be able to get over the top against the, against the better teams.
Speaker A:I'm going to say viva Las Vegas because I think the Bills staying away from home that long is going to hurt them a little bit.
Speaker A:There's no place like home.
Speaker A:And staying out on the west coast, you know, they're disrupts their family lives.
Speaker A:These guys aren't getting the same rest that they would in their own beds, yada yada.
Speaker A:And I think the Raiders are a pretty good team and well coached.
Speaker A:I think this is one of those upsets I talked about earlier this year where they're going to surprise some teams.
Speaker A:They're going to surprise the Buffalo Bills this week and win.
Speaker B:Got it.
Speaker B:We're going to Sunday night.
Speaker B:We're going the Cowboys at the Packers.
Speaker B:Green Bay's one and a half point favorites.
Speaker B:To me, this is this slam the brakes game, meaning Dallas just got embarrassed at home by the Bucks.
Speaker B:The packers completely blew out the Bears, their rivals.
Speaker B:So no, I think everybody kind of looks at that and thinks two teams going in opposite directions.
Speaker B:It's a week to weekly, Darren.
Speaker B:It's a clean slate every week.
Speaker B:I think Dallas actually goes into Green Bay with their terrible defense and finds a way to win.
Speaker B:It seems like kind of a Dallas thing to do in this Dak era that they would bounce back here.
Speaker B:So I'm going to pick Dallas to win this game by three.
Speaker A:Yeah, I mean, there's another night game for Dallas and I think, you know, I think they've got too much offense to be stagnant and take another loss like that.
Speaker A:I think they got too much offense for Green Bay's defense and I don't think Michael Parsons is going to be playing in this game to get his revenge on his former team, but I think his former team will get, take some out, some angst out on the packers this week.
Speaker B:You got it.
Speaker B:And then we're going to end on Monday night where my commander is coming off the humiliation of last Sunday, our seven and a half point underdogs at the white hot San Francisco 49ers.
Speaker B:There's just no way I can pick Washington to win this game outright.
Speaker B:I don't think the, the 49ers defense actually has not played very well and they're really beat up.
Speaker B:So I kind of think Jane Daniels is going to move the ball on them and I think they will stay within the seven and a half.
Speaker B:But with the way Purdy's playing right now, it's hard to pick against them.
Speaker B:So I think the, the Niners win, but it'll be seven or less.
Speaker A:I think the Niners are going to win and they'll win by more than seven and a half.
Speaker A:I think they've got, you know, a better team and I think they're better coached.
Speaker A:I think that is definitely a fact.
Speaker A:And I think he'll have some things ready for the commanders to deal with and it's going to be tough playing on the west coast for them, too.
Speaker B:All right, that's your slate.
Speaker A:All right.
Speaker A:So.
Speaker A:So how do you feel about the season?
Speaker A:You know, let's, you know, who do you think sort of the front runners in both the AFC and the NFC right now?
Speaker B:Well, I just absolutely love what I see from San Francisco.
Speaker B:I am.
Speaker B:I've always been a huge Kyle fan, a Shanahan fan.
Speaker B:I think he.
Speaker B:I kind of go back and forth thinking whether he or McVeigh is the best coach in the NFL, but he's right there.
Speaker B:He's such a.
Speaker B:He's such a smart guy.
Speaker B:The offense is so good and Purdy is now playing at a level that is.
Speaker B:It's an MVP level.
Speaker B:You know, the receivers are really banged up.
Speaker B:They got injuries all over the place, but that offensive line stays pretty healthy.
Speaker B:They have McCaffrey healthy, Kittle's been healthy.
Speaker B:So I think they're sort of the cream of the crop in the NFC and really standing out from everybody right now and in the afc I don't know if it's so much cream of the crop as it is.
Speaker B:I just have this feeling right now that maybe this is Josh Allen's year.
Speaker B:Yeah, you.
Speaker A:So you, you think, you know, Buffalo's had a couple close games.
Speaker A:They lost that, that game to New England, you know, a week ago.
Speaker A:You don't.
Speaker A:I'm thinking maybe Kansas City might be trying to reclaim their throne here, and Buffalo, maybe looking up at Patrick Mahomes again to deal with it, almost feels that's coming out again.
Speaker B:Yeah, the, the.
Speaker B:I need to see more from the Chiefs before, before I'm ready to, to.
Speaker B:To re.
Speaker B:Anoint them.
Speaker B:You know, they've got the three division wins and all of a sudden what looks like a division that isn't all that hot, or as hot as we thought it would be.
Speaker B:So let's.
Speaker B:I want to see.
Speaker B:I need to see more before I'm.
Speaker B:Before I, Before I put the Chiefs back up there.
Speaker A:Yeah, should be some interesting games this weekend.
Speaker A:A lot of more divisional matches.
Speaker A:We're having a few more bye weeks coming up this week.
Speaker A:I don't even think we discussed who the bye weeks are.
Speaker A:I didn't even look to see who the buys are, but.
Speaker A:Oh, here, I got.
Speaker A:Right here.
Speaker A:So we have Detroit, Miami, Minnesota and Cincinnati.
Speaker A:So I think it's our first time of the season having four teams on by.
Speaker A:So two less games than we had earlier in the year, but still some great football that's all around us.
Speaker B:Well, depends on which teams you're talking about, Darren.
Speaker A:I feel pretty good after this week.
Speaker B:Yeah, I'm sure you do.
Speaker B:I'm sure you do.
Speaker B:Well, we'll.
Speaker B:We'll see.
Speaker B:You know, like I said, it's, it's.
Speaker B:It's a, it's a new week every week.
Speaker B:It's pretty amazing.
Speaker B:We'll see what amazing ways my team has to defeat me this week.
Speaker A:All right, well, Ed, we will talk to you again next Wednesday morning we'll release our talk on the history of week six.
Speaker A:You know, some of the history moments that were made and some of the highlights.
Speaker A:And then again next Thursday we will have our predictions for week seven.
Speaker A:So, Ed, we thank you for joining us once again and we'll talk to you next week.
Speaker B:Thank you very much, Darren.
Speaker A:That's all the football history we have today, folks.
Speaker A:Join us back tomorrow for more of your football history.
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