From the Gridiron: Key Predictions for Week 16 of the NFL

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Hello my football friends.

This is Darren Hayes of pigskindispatch.com welcome once again to the Pig Pen, your portal deposit of football history.

And as we've done all year long, Ed Cleese joins us to tell his perspective, bake his picks, and talk some great football.

Ed, welcome back to the Pig Pen.

Hey Darren, how are you?

I am doing great.

Flying a little high after that Monday night game and you know, 23 in a row for the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday Night Football.

I bet you are.

You know what's funny about that?

So, yes, they are 230 on games that were scheduled to be on Monday Night Football.

Yeah, it was like Thursday or something.

It was Monday.

Oh, it ended up being moving to.

Monday because they moved it to Monday.

So the game was played on a Monday night and they lost.

But because it wasn't scheduled as Monday Night Football, they don't count it as a Monday Night Football record.

Okay, so that's so.

But I remember it and it's sort of like the silly thing they do with the Sunday Night Football on Thursday night to start the year like that.

Opening game on prime is not considered a Thursday Night Football game.

It's Sunday Night Football on Thursday night.

You know, anyway, hey, if they play.

The song, you know, singing Sunday night, you know, can't wait for Sunday night or wherever the hell the words go, it's got it, you know, they don't care what day of the week is Sunday.

So in my sick brain last night when they mentioned they're undefeated on Monday night, I wanted to raise my hand and be like, did you know?

Did you know?

So now you know.

Yeah, I understand the Monday Night Football because that's a tradition.

You're pre scheduled for the MNF game and Sunday Night Football, they're trying to make it like Monday Night Football.

But I grew up in the era of Monday Night Football when it was the game of the week.

And you know, Sunday night hasn't replaced it.

But you just have to, you just have to answer this question honestly though.

If they say, do the Steelers have a Monday Night Football winning streak?

You say yes.

And then they say, have the Steelers lost a game on Monday night at home?

And you have to say yes.

So you have to reconcile that.

Well, there's a difference between winning on Monday night or winning on Monday Night Football.

Eventually a Monday night.

That's what I'm saying.

It's a Monday Night Football game.

Fair enough.

Fair enough.

But so, yes, so with that in mind, I was a little, you know, jealous of you and all the other other fans out there who are watching meaningful football because we talked about this a little bit the last few weeks about the teams that aren't competing and the few that are kind of dead and done.

And so I want to recognize a soldier among us and that soldier is me.

Because this past Sunday I've told you that, you know, we're very strict about how we do our screens here.

We put a main game on the big screen and then we multi view with four screens on the smaller screen.

Right.

So we usually got five going at once.

And it's sort of an honor when you're chosen as the main game.

And the Commander's game is always the main game if it is on.

It was a little almost embarrassing to have to put the Commander's Giants game on the main screen on Sunday when there's all these.

That's 3 and 10 against 2 and 11 in a dismal atmosphere in New York.

Cold, snowy, half empty stadium.

And you know, it's kind of funny that we're, we're, we're watching that game.

But I told my kids, I said, this is the price you pay.

This is what we have to do.

This is how you earn your fan stripes.

So thinking of fan stripes.

So I thought about it this way.

I said, okay, the last time the Commanders made the playoffs in back to back seasons was they won the Super bowl in 91.

That is the last time they've made the playoffs in back to back years.

I really thought this year we would erase that.

We did not.

And I got to thinking that's 33 seasons, including this one since then.

How many seasons out of the 33, Darren, do you think Washington played the final quarter of their games?

So four or more where they were either officially eliminated from the playoffs or essentially eliminated from the playoffs.

Out of those 33 seasons, how many come, say, December 1st, do you think they were already done?

I'm going to say 50%.

You're right at it.

Pretty much a little over.

Actually it's 17 out of 33 seasons, so seven.

So basically half of my life watching this team, we've had to reconcile the end of the year figuring out reasons to watch a team for four or more games.

At least at the end of the season that was done.

And that isn't easy.

And I feel like you really pay your dues as a fan in those times.

And then they had.

I found, I figured this out.

There were eight more seasons.

So 25 out of 33 where they were eliminated before the last game of the season.

So the few of those they, you know, hung on.

So 20.

So only eight times in the last 33 years has my team been alive for the playoffs going into the last week of the season.

So I am used to this.

This is, this is our, this is what we do in my house.

And like I said, basically what I root for around the league then is just pain.

You know, I want other people to join us in our, in our misery.

And I like, you'll be on the screen soon enough.

Sort of like, you know, we're here now.

So yes, grappling with the bitterness and patting myself on the back for being a good soldier through a yet another rough, sad December is where my mind went this week.

Now I, I can feel for you a little bit.

I can't appreciate what you're going through.

I can't at all.

I can tell you I don't have the stats in front of me, but, but I can tell you there's franchises that wish to be in your position to be in the playoffs 50% of the time because there's many that are much less than that.

No, no, Darren, this is 50% of the time we were eliminated by December and 25 out of 33 seasons, we were eliminated by week 18.

We didn't even make the.

We only made.

You don't think that there's some franchises.

Worse than that, the only ones that are close.

There are, there are a Couple, I.

Say Cleveland's got to be Clevel.

Cleveland is worse.

Miami over the past like 25 ish years is in our neighborhood.

I would probably say the Cardinals are probably in that.

The Cardinals are in the neighborhood.

Yes, the Lions were, but they have worked their way.

Maybe, maybe Chicago.

No, no, no, no, no.

The Bear, the Bears event.

They're.

They're not good, but they're not in the direct with us.

The jets, you know, some of those franchises have had some long suffering out there.

And the prior, you know, last year, you'd have to figure out how you reconcile last year because finally last year we made it to the NFC championship game for the first time in 33 years.

So we checked that box also.

That was the first time we won as many as 11 games in 33 years.

That's crazy that we were the only team that had.

Hadn't done that.

Even the Browns had won at least 11 once over that period, and I think they did it twice.

So we erased a few of those things last year, which is nice.

But in terms of actually being involved in the NFL come New Year's Day, there are only a handful of teams that are in that same pile with us, unfortunately.

Well, there's.

There's some good things to say about that and there's some bad things, because I can tell you as a spoiled fan, fan base of the Steelers, you know, we are on pins and needles every year at New York.

New York.

New Year's is never relaxing.

You're always on the bubble.

You don't know if you're in or you're out.

And you have to win that last game, which I guess in some ways sounds exciting, but it's very nerve wracking that they can't finish things off and make it, you know, so you can rest your players the last game.

I don't think the Steelers are very rarely in that position, even though they play us quite often.

The Steelers are one of the many teams that over the years, I was extremely jealous of.

Now that, like I said, we've talked about this many times, I don't get to get too deep into it, but with our ownership change and everything changing, I no longer feel the dark cloud of.

Of dark.

The.

The cloud of darkness that we can never escape.

I know I don't feel that way anymore.

However, we need to string some seasons together in a row before that PTSD starts to totally fade away.

Yeah.

And, you know, I know it's been a hard season.

You've had a lot of injuries with Washington this year and I hear that they're sitting Jaden Daniels down for the rest of the season.

So maybe that's a good thing to let the guy heal.

He's probably not fully healthy.

Let him heal up, live the fight another day because.

And see what your prospects are behind him.

Maybe even beyond Mariota, you know what he is.

But maybe see, you know what your third string and beyond are.

As far as our third string, Darren is 39 years old.

It's Josh Johnson, so.

Oh, okay.

Maybe.

Hey, well, if Philip rivers at 44 can come in and have a quite a performance.

Seattle on the ropes and maybe a 39 year old Johnson that hasn't played very much has a lot of gas left in the tank.

I'm mildly looking forward to seeing us play the Eagles because it matters to Philly and that could be kind of a fun game.

Take a shot at them and maybe hurt them on the way out.

However, this is playing out the string.

Get these three over with and start thinking about 20, 26.

There you go.

There you go.

And you get some good draft capital going into it.

So yes, yes, so that'll be good.

So.

And then along those lines, the other thing that blew my mind, my, my bigger picture observation for this week was I did, I did a little, some counting and I tried to.

This is kind of arbitrary, but, you know, we talk about the roller coaster of the NFL season and how long the season is and how it doesn't feel that way in week three because you feel like, oh my God, the season could be on the line right now, you know, and it feels like it, like you're going to blow it.

Or if the team starts five and one, you think they're, oh, they're a lock.

Right?

But I counted how many.

I think I counted 15 out of the 32 teams have what I would consider to have had a roller coaster season this year where they weren't the team at the end of the year that they were in the beginning or maybe the middle like.

Or they were so inconsistent all year long that they never got a grasp like an exception to that.

So the teams that wouldn't qualify would be like the NFC West.

All of Those teams, Rams, Seahawks, 49ers, and even at least three of them, Rams, Seahawks, 49ers, they've been consistent.

Those are three teams that were pretty good week one.

They didn't have any major lulls or valleys throughout the year and they're still good in December.

But there's, there's only half the league can, can qualify.

You even talk about like the Patriots, they lost an opener to the Raiders and then they started the season one and two and you know, and then exploded.

And then you have like the Dolphins who started one and six and then got to six and you have us, the commanders that were three and two and then went on an eight game losing streak.

Then you have teams like Dallas that looked bad, then they looked good, then they looked bad, then they look good, you know, and just back and forth, back and forth.

Teams like the Bucks and the Colts who were both five and one at one point, I believe in the.

And at one point they were the one seeds and now they're probably not going to make the playoffs or at least the Colts won't and the Bucks are fighting for their lives.

So just sort of like.

And then the Texans, goodness gracious, they look like they can win the super bowl now and they looked dreadful in as recently as mid October.

So.

And then of course the Chiefs who, you know, bad start, good middle, miserable end.

Really miserable end.

Yeah, exactly.

So there's just a.

And then like a team like the Saints, the opposite way.

Rough, rough first three quarters of a season and look like they're going to finish, finish strong.

So just a little reminder if we're lucky enough to still be doing this, this time next year, to not panic, not freak out and understand that in October, Halloween, even Thanksgiving, things may not be what they seem in the NFL because you got it.

You got to make it through the long haul.

Yeah, that's for sure.

And teams that you didn't mention, you know, the Ravens, how they've been, you know, came out just.

Well, again, they were like the Washington just horrific injuries plagued them in the beginning, especially the beginning of season, and really, really dug themselves a hole that they can't quite seem to get out of and just trying to stay level and might not be good enough.

Yeah, the Ravens are on the list.

The Bengals, the Colts, Chiefs, commanders.

There's, there's others, Falcons who had a pretty good start and have, you know, and then, and then went way downhill.

Even the Cardinals got off to a pretty good start this year.

Look competitive and then they've just been on a horrible, horrible slide.

So just something to remember next year.

You know, if a team's three and one, let's not annoy them too quick.

Yeah.

Or dismiss anybody.

That's one in five because we've seen a couple of teams come back from that and at least be on the, in the hunt here near the end.

Absolutely.

Absolutely.

All Right.

So I guess it's time to.

To go into our last week results, even though I probably don't want to.

Well, you did finish ahead of me, so you did a little bit better than I.

This is a middling week for you and I.

This week.

We'll start with.

You had the.

You're going to start off.

You start off well.

You got the.

You called the Ravens game almost perfectly.

You thought that they would go into Cincinnati and roll the Bengals.

I didn't think they'd shut him out.

I wish I would shut them out.

Yeah, they showed him.

So that was a very easy win.

That was not one of those games where sometimes the score is misleading.

Now, that was pretty much what it was.

A little surprising to see the Bengals offense and Burrow struggle that way.

They ran 71 offensive plays and had zero points.

I mean, I don't know how you do that.

You know, I think you and I could run 71 plays and at least have a field goal, you know.

Well, you do it by driving down the field and then turning the ball over.

So they did that.

They did that a few times.

A miserable, you know, the Bengals.

The Bengals had a glimmer there for a few weeks, just a little sliver of hope, and, boy, that door slammed very fast.

And now it's just a bad 4 and 10 football team.

Yeah, but you nailed that.

You got that one perfect.

You're also going to get two because you had the Bills going into New England and pulling off the W. That was.

I think probably it could wind up being maybe one of the more consequential games of the year, just depending on how things play out in the afc.

And if nothing else, it's a message, I think, from Josh Allen and the Bills a little bit.

Yeah.

Being down by 21 at one point and they look like they were dead to rights, that the Patriots just had their number and it looked like it was going to be an onslaught.

And some.

Something changed with the Bills and they really came on again at the end and pulled it off.

That was a good game.

A lot of fun to watch.

It was.

And I think really that's one of those things where I always feel like when the team is behind a hat, they're down 247 at half.

And if you're receiving the ball to start the second half, that is your moment to get back in the game.

Right.

So because you're down 24 7, but if you can score out of the half, even if it's just a field goal, then you're within two scores.

There's a ton of time left, and you sort of feel like you've survived it.

So it's sort of like a.

It feels like a do or die moment for me when it seems down and they get the ball to start the second half like, this is your chance.

The Bills cashed it in immediately, so they immediately made that a game again in the second half.

And then it's sort of like, oh, man, Patriots can't really bleed this clock for two quarters now.

You know, it's just a game.

So, yeah, credit to the Bills.

That's a huge win for them, and you nailed it.

So you got your two there.

You're gonna get one because I kind of waffled on this, but I think you only deserve one for the Broncos.

You had the Broncos beating the packers, which was.

You get your one.

You had their defense holding the packers to 20 or less.

And gosh, their defense was great in the second half of that game, but they really struggled in the first half.

The packers did score the first five times they had the ball, so I kind of halved it for you there and gave you.

Gave you one on that game.

All right, fair enough.

They wasn't 20.

Here's more than 20.

So, yep, fair enough.

Big, big fat zero for the Chiefs.

You had them bouncing back in kind of a big way against the Chargers.

I think Mahomes doesn't get hurt on that play.

I think they have a chance of going down scoring and.

And making that game.

I think it's probably going to overtime, at least, because you'd think he gets them into field goal range and doesn't make the mistake that you made.

So you think that that's probably at least going to overtime.

But, ah, man, watching that game, even before he got hurt, that was like, all right, we've talked about it all year long.

The switch.

They don't have the switch.

They can't block.

He's under duress every play.

The receivers do not get open, and they're just not good.

They're just not good.

That doesn't mean they couldn't have found a way to win that game.

But they're not very good.

I didn't think the Chargers were that great on Sunday, and the Chiefs still couldn't get it done.

So you're going to get a zero on that one.

You're also going to get a zero because you had the Panthers rolling, the Saints.

Well, there was some rolling, but it wasn't.

And you know, it's.

And I kicked myself because in all my pickums and the things I do with my friends.

And I think I mentioned it on the pod that I'd be opposite of you, but I didn't have the guts to put it on my sheet because I thought the Saints would win that game outright and they did.

But I do not get any points.

Who'd think the.

You wouldn't think.

Yeah.

Really?

Exactly.

But they look, you know, their defense, their defense has been pretty good the last few weeks.

And if Shuck.

That's how he said.

That's how he say his name.

Right.

Shuck is, is, you know, way too early to say anything other than he looks competent.

And they're moving the ball better than they did earlier in the year.

So I think if you're a Saints fan right now, you're pleased and you're one of the few teams that probably isn't.

And let's get this season over with.

It's more like, hey, I'm excited to watch these last three games, see what we got.

Yeah, right.

Amazing thing.

That's.

That's a team we didn't mention earlier.

That.

Right.

Really turned it around.

They were really going gangbusters here.

Yep, Yep.

So that's five points for you and gets you 67 for the year.

I also am going to wear the zero with you the big goose egg on the Chiefs game because I said the same thing.

That was.

I went to the.

Well several times this year on the Chiefs like, oh, this is the week, this is the weekend.

And it really never wound up being the week all year long.

So a big zero for me on that one.

I'm gonna get a zero for the same Packers Broncos game we talked about a minute ago that you got the 1.4 because I had the opposite.

I had the packers winning a low scoring game.

Another really fun, compelling, exciting, late season, you know, late window game.

That, that was, that was a good one.

That felt like two really good teams going at it.

And another game on Sunday where a devastating injury to a superstar of the NFL with Micah going down.

Yeah, it's tough.

And I know, you know, everybody talks about what can the NFL do?

What can we do?

And I don't know what that answer is.

Is.

I mean, because both Mahomes and Parsons go down on what looks like just standard looking plays.

Both are on grass, you know, so, you know, it's.

I don't know.

I know everybody's kind of freaked out about all these injuries and what.

And you Know, it's.

Talk about the wear and tear, but they actually probably.

There's less contact now than there ever has been in football before in terms of practices and off season, you know, and all that.

So I'm not sure what the answer is.

Yeah, no, those were definitely.

I mean, they were under some pressure and some activity on the play in the heat of the action, but really not contact as you would think in professional football.

You know, Mahomes just was so awkward and, you know, just makes the hairs on the back of your neck stand up.

And Micah, you could see when him changing direction suddenly how when the quarterback got moved, you know, that you could see he had some angst of pain.

I'm a, I'm a big basketball fan too.

I think I've mentioned it a couple of times, and I listen to the Bill Simmons podcast a lot, who does a lot of NBA stuff.

He does NFL stuff too, but he's an NBA guy.

And his theory on the NBA guys and why we've seen more Achilles knee injuries, soft tissue injuries is simple.

As the game moves so fast, these guys are so much bigger, they're so much faster.

There's just.

There's more plays in a game like in the NBA, there's way more running than there ever used to be.

Somebody did a study where they're.

They're running in a game like miles more than they used to just because the pace of the game is different.

So you're literally just going up and down the floor more often.

And it's not even so much about how many games you're playing.

It's just like as you're playing.

So in the NFL, we see more plays, we see a faster pace.

So maybe it's just the law of averages.

You know, you just X amount of plays in a game, X amount of rushes in the game off the edge as opposed to the way it used to be.

You know, then maybe that's.

Maybe it's as simple as that.

More opportunity.

Yeah, I, I think, you know, I'm not a medical expert by any means, and maybe I'm way off base on this, but just my, My quick observation is I think it's what Simmons said is, has some truth.

You know, these guys are bigger, faster, stronger.

They're.

They're putting muscle on like people.

Human beings have never had muscle on their bodies before, and I don't think that the ligaments and tendons and everything can handle that because those don't grow to my knowledge like muscles do.

And maybe that's what it is.

It's just too much muscle capacity and too much strain of, you know, what we're doing with our muscles and professional athletes today that are doing that.

That's exactly why I try not to bulk up too much.

I just don't want to, you know, that's why, you know, I want to keep some soft layers in between me and my torn acl.

That's.

That's my.

That's why.

Yeah, that's why I sit on a computer or sit on a couch.

Yes.

Much safer.

I just don't want.

I just don't want to be a statistic, you know, so that's a good theory.

So I'm also going to get a zero for the Lions.

I had them in a game down to the wire and pulling out a win in la.

I didn't really believe that they were going to win the game in la, but that was sort of my bold prediction.

I did think it was going to go down to the wire and it didn't.

I mean, unless you really want to stretch it there.

They did get within seven for a minute.

But.

But the, the Rams were clearly better.

Clearly the better team in that game.

So I was not correct.

Yeah, that was a tough one to pick and tough to pick the Lions on that one.

Yeah, I didn't.

I didn't have my.

I didn't really have my heart in that one.

But that Lions defense just.

They're not that great.

They got run over and time is running out for Detroit.

We'll talk about them here in a minute.

So that's no points for me so far.

I am going to get two for the Bills just like you did.

I had the Bills winning by four or more in New England.

They won by four, so I was saved from getting my extra point there.

And then I'm going to get two for calling your Steelers steamrolling the Dolphins on Monday night.

And that's what that was.

That was a steamrolling.

I said in our analysis last year, picking that game, that the Dolphins have turned their season around in spite of Tua and that I thought the Steelers would probably make him beat them.

And they did, and he couldn't.

So a nice turnaround for the Dolphins this year, but I don't think they can feel very confident or comfortable with their quarterback situation moving forward.

And a really nice win for the Steelers coming off the, the, the win against the Ravens.

Right.

Or that two weeks ago.

Where am I?

Was that last week?

The Ravens, when they beat the Ravens?

Yeah, they beat the Ravens.

Yeah.

They read the race.

So you, you could have maybe had a little bit of a let down there.

And they, they certainly did not.

They look, they looked strong on Monday.

Yeah, it was interesting.

Mike Tomlin on his media, media day on Tuesday was commenting about the, the Monday night game and he said one of the big turnarounds that they had at the end of the first half because I remember Steelers didn't score till less than a minute left.

That was our first score.

And they got the ball the second half and scored three consecutive times there to, to go up 28 three or whatever it was at that point.

But he said one of the big turning points is something that they studied that Miami did not have enough cornerbacks.

They were playing Minka Fitzpatrick, former Steeler in three wide receiver sets as a corner in coverage.

So instead of the Steelers with, you know, four top tight ends who.

Two of them had touchdowns last night, first time in NFL history, two running scores by a tight.

Two different tight ends on the same team.

You.

That.

That was which I found kind of interesting when with Hayward and John Smith.

But anyway, he.

That's what Tomlin said.

They started doing three wide receiver sets with, you know, new pickups Thielen and mvs, along with DK Metcalf, who was just a beast on his, his touchdown.

You know, he takes the, the arm, the forearm shiver to the one guy and throws him out of the way and it goes to the end zone.

But he said that was one of the big things that did it and that helped the running game, which was kind of stagnant in the first half.

You know, Steelers really couldn't get the ball going at all against Miami, who was really hard hitting coming out of that game.

They're a well coached team.

The Steelers are well coached.

They always are.

I understand some of the frustration there sometimes with Tomlin and feeling stuck at times, but generally speaking, this time of the year, the Steelers are going to get it done more often than not, especially against the team they should beat like Miami.

Yeah, they got some tough ones coming up, but hopefully some guys will start getting healthy here and start getting the defense back together with TJ Watt and Harmon and some of those folks coming back.

Yep.

So your Steelers got me the two, which gives me saves a week for me in some ways that gives me four for the week.

So you beat me by one for the week and you narrowed the gap.

So now it's.

I have a 71 to 67 lead over you four.

It was five at the end of last week.

Now it's four.

Okay.

We'll keep chipping away.

I'm gonna run out of time away.

Well, let's, let's, let's see what you got for me this week.

Well, before we get into that, let's.

Let's do this.

Are we going to take this into the playoffs?

Are we going to say regular season?

That's the end of our competition.

Oh, we should take it to the playoffs.

We need to come up with something a little different, though.

Maybe we take it right to this end, to the Super Bowl.

We'll have a.

Let's do it.

So let's, let's go the whole way.

Let's go the whole way.

I'll ponder some ways to make it a little more interesting in the playoffs.

Yeah, we may have to have some personal statistics of players or something or team.

We'll come up with something.

Yeah, let's take it.

Yeah, sure.

Okay.

All right.

All right.

So going into week 16, we're going to make our predictions, and I believe you, sir, have the first choice.

Okay.

Well, I, you know, I've spent a lot of time last several weeks talking about all the lousy teams, including mine.

So I decided this week to only pick games that involved teams, at least one team in.

In the game that was relevant.

So there's no dregs here.

So I'm going to start with Thursday, maybe the guest.

Another we.

The first time the Seahawks and Rams played, we called it maybe the matchup of the year.

Now it is part two, and I anticipate another very big game.

I am.

This feels like a real coin flip to me because I've said many times how much I love McVeigh and the Rams have the better quarterback, and there's really no arguing that.

But I'm picking the Seahawks on Thursday night.

It's sort of a law of averages game to me.

Adams is banged up.

Puka might be a little banged up the short week, which probably matters a little bit less this week because it's such an important game.

So I think that everybody's going to be fully locked and loaded for the game, but I'm gonna give Darnold the benefit of the doubt and say that he plays a lot better, doesn't hand the ball over nearly as much, and that the Seahawks survive and beat the Rams Thursday night.

Well, I'm kind of disappointed you picked that because I picked very similarly in that it won't let me pick up many points, but maybe it will with my extra prediction on this.

I, I think the Seahawks are going to win this game, take the lead in the NFC west and make it a lot more interesting to talk about by splitting that series.

But their, their defense is going to set up a score in the second half late in the second half for a touchdown.

Either they're going to score it or they're going to set up one for the offense.

It's going to make the difference to take them over the LA Rams.

Okay, well, if it comes down to that, then I'm just gonna have to figure out a way to give you a point over me because that is definitely more specific.

So I'm going to move on to Saturday because we have two Saturday games.

I am going to start with the first of the Saturday games.

That is the Washington Commanders hosting the Philadelphia Eagles.

And that game is going to be way closer than people think.

The Commanders are going to keep it tight.

The Eagles are going to win at the end because their defense is going to hold on a final drive that the Commanders are trying to win or tie.

Okay, interesting.

I think maybe I would, I mean I did not pick on that game, but I would almost think I, I think when you say, you know, teams aren't flicking the switch, I think Philadelphia sort of flicked a switch last week.

They looked pretty good and I think they're going to roll and roll right into the playoffs and I think they're going to probably maybe beat up on your team a little bit, I'm afraid to say.

But I did not pick on that game.

That's the Raiders switch, so it doesn't count.

Oh, that's a Raider switch.

Yes.

All right.

I also, I picked on one of the Saturday games which I'm sure you're going to talk about here in a second.

But I'm going to talk about it first because I think the Bears are going to have a hard fought win with the Pack with a late Caleb led drive.

I think Caleb's going to make the difference late in the game, put the Bears over the edge.

I'm exact opposite, so I don't have a ton of conviction on this, but I'm going with the Packers.

I love it when you pick against me and you pick the packers because.

It hasn't gone very well.

It hasn't gone very well.

So.

So yes, I'm going Packers.

It's more of a gut feeling than anything.

I am concerned about losing Parsons for sure and I didn't know if Christian Watson's gonna play or not.

Look like he got a little banged up there at the end of the game.

So they, the packers are A little bit hobbled.

It feels like it's setting up maybe for a Bears win, but something just tells me that they're not quite ready yet.

And I got to be consistent because last week I said the Bears are going to be a team that doesn't make the playoffs.

Well, pretty much the only way they're not going to make it now unless something weird happens is if they lose out.

And they have.

They kind of have to lose to the packers.

Now.

Their last two games are the 49ers and the Lions.

So this is a tough end.

The Bears need this game on Thursday.

It gets scary and a little dicey for them if they don't get it, but.

So I'm gonna go with the packers winning a title.

Yeah, I don't know that the Bears are going to make the playoffs either, but I do think they're going to win this game because I think Ben Johnson, with his experience being in NFC north as an assistant, sort of knows the numbers against the pack, especially without having Micah Parsons out there.

That was a little factor that I think he really couldn't compensate for, but I think now he can.

He knows what this packers defenses, knows how to attack it and I think he's got the weapons to do it with his offense and his defense is playing pretty good ball too.

So I think that Bears are going to win that game.

Should be a good one.

Yeah.

All right.

So I think my next selection I went to is that I have.

The Buccaneers are going to write the ship this weekend.

They're going to have a statement win over the Panthers in Charlotte.

Baker Mayfield is going to account for at least three touchdowns.

Okay.

I really don't like it.

I'm not opposite.

I mean I'm not picking that.

I didn't pick that game, but I actually don't like it.

I probably would go with Carolina in that game.

I think something's wrong in Tampa.

I just think it's been seven weeks in a row now that they haven't really looked right.

Even in the couple that they've won.

They got defensive guys fighting with each other.

They couldn't come close to stopping the Falcons last week.

Like, and that's a, a very blah.

Falcons offense without Pennix, without Drake, London, they were running free against that, against the Bucks.

So I don't like it.

I, I don't, I don't think.

I don't like it.

So I'm opposite of you on that one, but it's not officially on my list.

Well, I think I, I might have been that way too.

If it wasn't for the.

I don't know if you could call it a tirade that Coach Tampa's coach had last week because he always talks in a monotone, very calming, grandfatherly voice.

But his expletives, they had to bleep out after that whole statement right after that game, the way the Buccaneers lost that game.

I think that's going to resonate and send a message to the team.

I know Baker Mayfield really didn't want to talk to reporters after a game.

Of course when you have a boo boo like that near the end, I guess you don't want to either.

But these guys are professionals and Baker usually talks.

But I think the message is loud and clear to the Buccaneers players and they're going to respond in a very positive way.

Gotcha.

We'll have to see.

I am going to go to Dallas for my next pick.

I'm going to go back to the.

Well last week I said that I thought it was a bad spot for the Cardinals.

I'm sorry, not the Cardinals, the Chargers heading into Kansas City coming off a tough, hard fought game against the Eagles.

Hard fought win against the Eagles.

And now, now I'm going to do it again.

This game doesn't matter that much for the Chargers.

It really doesn't.

Of course they'll not say that, but they're kind of the chart.

With Denver winning last week, the Chargers odds of winning the division are dwindling.

It's not over and there's still plenty to play for.

But I don't think it's like this huge game for the Chargers.

I think they might be.

Their offensive line is still so banged up and struggling.

They really skated by these last two games and I think Dallas is in their favorite spot because the game now doesn't matter that much.

So that's when Dallas is great.

You know, once, once Dallas has sort of already blown it.

That's when they play their best.

So I expect Dallas to bounce back, have a big week and beat the Chargers in Dallas.

Yeah, I don't know.

I mean I did not pick on this game, but I don't know if Dallas has anything but pride to play for.

I know they're still technically in it, but with seven losses they're chasing the packers with four losses.

The 49ers with four losses.

They're eliminated from the wild card already.

They can only win the division.

The win the division, okay?

That's the only way they can get in it.

And it's, it's three and oh, and oh, and three.

That's the only way they get in.

They got to go three and oh, and the Eagles have to go.

Owen.

Three.

Okay.

Yeah.

I was going to say.

I'm looking at this.

I'm like, I don't know how they're even still in the bubble, but that makes sense.

Yep.

That's it.

That's it.

So they need.

They need us to beat the Eagles on Saturday to keep them alive for that Sunday game.

But the chances, the odds of the.

Of the Cowboys winning probably go up if the Eagles do lose, because then the game.

I'm sorry.

If the Eagles win, because then the game means even less for Dallas and that's when they're great.

Yeah, that's true.

Pressure's off, right?

Exactly.

Yep.

All right.

Interesting pick.

I'm gonna go to another big boy game where, you know, there's a lot of games that are very interesting and really have a big impact on the way this playoff picture is setting up.

As I think you alluded to earlier.

I'm gonna go to the.

The Patriots in the Baltimore game because I.

That's one I'm particularly interested in because it affects the.

The AFC north and AFC east.

And I think that Drake May is for real and I think he's going to outduel Lamar in this game.

Clip the Ravens wings a little bit and hold the.

The defense of the Patriots with Coach Vrabel is going to lead them to holding Baltimore's offense to 21 points or less in this game for big Patriots win to keep their.

Their lead over of the Buffalo in the AFC East.

That is not my last pick, but it almost was and it almost would have been identical because I also like New England to get back.

We've said many times I don't think the Ravens are right.

I don't.

I think there's actual problems there and I anticipate you being correct in your pick, but my last pick, I ended with the Steelers last week.

I'm going to end with the Steelers again this week.

Except this time, if I'm right again this time you won't be nearly as happy.

Come this time next week because I think the Lions are going to roll the Steelers on Sunday and I think the Lions are going to continue to do their sort of roller coaster up and down by the week being much better at home in general as well, especially offensively.

I think their offense is going to give those Steelers a lot of trouble.

I think they're going to.

And they're going to win that game by 10 or more and the Lions defense will bounce back a little bit.

Again, I know you don't want to admit it, it's probably not a huge game for the Steelers really considering that they still have that, that Week 18 game with the Ravens.

And especially if we think the Ravens are going to lose anyway this week, it really may not wind up mattering all that much for the Steelers.

So I've got the lions winning by 10 or more.

I mean I, I wouldn't, I wouldn't be surprised if that happens.

And actually probably, that's probably more so the what will happen rather than the other any other way because like you said, there really isn't any pressure on the Steelers this week.

The Ravens have a much tougher schedule, you know, playing Patriots like we just talked about.

This week they play Green Bay who's in a fight next week.

So it's important for Green Bay to win next week and they play head to head with Baltimore.

So technically the Steelers could lose or lose their next two games and maybe even lose to the, maybe the Baltimore game doesn't even mean anything right at that point because, you know, they could easily lose their next two games and the Steelers have, you know, the Detroit and Cleveland before they play Baltimore.

So yeah, there could be in the way that they've played and like I told you earlier, they always make week 18 very important game.

They probably way to do it this week as well, but.

Yeah, I wouldn't doubt that a bit.

All right, well, I, I am going to pick a little bit of a Christmas miracle as my last selection here.

I am going to take Philip Rivers and those Indianapolis Colts to knock off the 49ers in the game this weekend.

I know many people are writing the Colts off even with Rivers coming in and playing well.

They're on the bubble, but I think that they can get their way back into contention.

You know, maybe they won't make the playoffs, but make it interesting, be on right on the edge of that bubble or get inside the, the playoff picture with Rivers because he's given them a little bit of a momentum.

People are believing even in a loss, you know, that's a good Seattle team they lost to.

I think they do it this week and Rivers maybe becomes the AFC player of the week even with this win.

That's a fun pick and I think a lot of us, myself included, kind of root for it.

You know, it was, it was kind of fun to watch him on Sunday, but the truth of the matter is he wasn't very good.

He was great for a 44 year old that hasn't played football in five years.

But that's not what we're really grading against.

Right.

We're grading against just being an NFL quarterback and he wasn't a great NFL quarterback on Sunday.

Struggled to get to about 100 and I think 130 yards passing.

The offense looked very limited and the guy can't move, so any kind of pressure is going to be problematic.

It's, it's a great story.

It's cool.

It's, it's really impressive that he could even be competent.

He threw a touchdown pass, so that's great.

But I think it's a long shot on Monday night against the 49ers and the quietest 10 and 4 team of all time lurking right behind the Seahawks and Rams.

And if the 49ers beat the Colts on Monday, they're going to be tied with whoever's in second place in that division, the loser of the Thursday night game and just one game behind the winner.

So I think the Niners get it done.

But I'll probably be rooting for you to be right because that'll be a fun story.

Yeah, I think the biggest difference is this game's in Indy and, and I think having that crowd behind him a little bit, being a Monday night game and crazy things happen on Monday Night Football, especially during the holidays.

You know, this is going to make it that much more impactful.

But I think, you know, Grandpa Rivers is going to shake some rust off.

He's going to have a big week and put them over.

And crazy things happen in Monday Night Football games that aren't Monday Night Football, as we've learned earlier today.

Yeah.

So that's why, that's why I deemed it the Christmas miracle, because I think.

There you go.

I like it.

I like it.

Well, I wanted, I wanted to end Darren.

We started talking about, about a fake soldier, me.

So I wanted to end with one of our very loyal listeners.

I told you, I've brought a couple stragglers with me.

So a real soldier, a guy who spent, oh, 30ish years serving our country.

His name is Matt, Good friend of mine.

I've known him since we were very young.

And I don't know if he's actually, I don't know if we can call him a listener or not, because what he does is he's a ballot box stuffer for your podcast.

What he does is he will put it up on YouTube, Spotify, all the different platforms and let it play through several times on.

And so I don't know if he actually ever watches or not because he's too distracted, Darren.

By.

By this season because this is not Christmas.

This is not.

That's not what's important to him right now.

It is McRib season for my buddy Matt and so he has two loves in this world.

He loves the McRib and he loves eggnog.

And somehow some way he has managed to combine them.

He sent me a picture the other day of his McRib next to a big foaming, frothy glass of eggnog and it almost made me go to the cardiologist just looking at it.

So this is just a shout out to Matt because he may not be with us much longer if he keeps up the eggnog and McRib habit.

But I just wanted to thank him for giving us.

Don't put that on him, Ricky Bobby.

Don't put that on him.

I wanted to give him a. I wanted to give him a shout out for all of the clicks and follows.

I think he even commented on the YouTube channel last week that hey, where's my shout out?

So here it is.

Enjoy the plot, enjoy the pod, enjoy your eggnog and enjoy your 45th McRib of the McRib season.

I was going to say that when you were saying he just is maybe not a thing he contributes because I think he's the one that made a comment on last week.

So it's yes, we welcome Matt and I.

Like I said, Matt, I have your back, so we're with you.

I'll eat rib sandwich and have a glass eggnog with you anytime.

So.

Oh boy.

Keep it up.

All right?

Yeah.

All right, well, that's it.

All right.

Well we are, you know, wrap.

Wrapping up this week and going into another great week next week where we'll take a look at the selections next week, the Christmas holiday special of the show.

I don't know that we'll do anything special except maybe Christmas theme somehow, but we'll have some great football and some great analytic talk and some picks next week.

So good luck to you, Ed, and hope that that four point lead of yours doesn't deteriorate too much this week.

I got this, Darren.

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