Is Today

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Are today's offenses more productive than those of forty years ago? The study examines the evolution of NFL offenses by comparing the 1983 season to the 2023 season. It focuses on offensive philosophies, leading passers and rushers from each era, and highlights the dramatic shift towards a more pass-oriented game.

-Offensive Philosophies:

-1983: Dominated by a heavier emphasis on running the ball. Teams prioritized establishing a solid ground game to control the clock and wear down defenses. Short and intermediate passing complemented the rushing attack with play action.

-2023: Witnessed a significant shift towards a pass-happy approach. Teams utilize a variety of passing concepts, including spread formations, vertical routes, and play-action passes, to exploit defensive weaknesses and score quickly.

-Leading Passers:

-1983: Lynn Dickey (Green Bay) led the league with 4,458 passing yards, highlighting the modest passing volume of the era. Quarterbacks prioritized efficiency and ball security over taking risks.

1983 Top 10 QBs
1 Lynn Dickey • GNB 4458
2 Bill Kenney • KAN 4348
3 Danny White • DAL 3980
4 Joe Montana • SFO 3910
5 Joe Theismann • WAS 3714
6 Brian Sipe • CLE 3566
7 Richard Todd • NYJ 3478
8 Ron Jaworski • PHI 3315
9 Vince Ferragamo • RAM 3276
10 Steve Bartkowski • ATL 3167
Stats courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference

-2023: The landscape has drastically changed. Quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen routinely break 4,000 passing yards, emphasizing offensive explosiveness. Accuracy and arm strength are paramount for success in today's pass-first league. These do it with 2-4 fewer plays per game due to some timing changes over the last four decades in NFL rules, despite more no-huddle offensive plays and less "prevent" defense played.

2023 QB passing leaders
1 Tua Tagovailoa • MIA 4624
2 Jared Goff • DET 4575
3 Dak Prescott • DAL 4516
4 Josh Allen • BUF 4306
5 Brock Purdy • SFO 4280
6 Patrick Mahomes • KAN 4183
7 Jordan Love • GNB 4159
8 C.J. Stroud • HOU 4108
9 Baker Mayfield • TAM 4044
10 Trevor Lawrence • JAX 4016
Stats courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference

-Leading Rushers:

-1983: Eric Dickerson (Los Angeles Rams) was running rapid through the opposition with 1,808 rushing yards, a testament to the era's dominance of running backs. Teams relied heavily on their featured back to control the tempo.

1983 Rushing Leaders
1. Eric Dickerson • RAM 1808
2. William Andrews • ATL 1567
3. Curt Warner • SEA 1449
4. Walter Payton • CHI 1421
5. John Riggins • WAS 1347
6. Tony Dorsett • DAL 1321
7. Earl Campbell • HOU 1301
8. Ottis Anderson • STL 1270
9. Mike Pruitt • CLE 1184
10. George Rogers • NOR 1144
Stats courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference

-2023: While still significant, running backs play a more complementary role. While elite rushers like Derrick Henry or Christian McCaffrey exist, their production typically falls below 1,800 yards due to the increased focus on passing. Dual-threat quarterbacks have emerged as a significant rushing threat, adding another dimension to modern offenses.

2023 Rushing Leaders
1 Christian McCaffrey • SFO 1459
2 Derrick Henry • TEN 1167
3 Kyren Williams • LAR 1144
4 James Cook • BUF 1122
5 D'Andre Swift • PHI 1049
6 James Conner • ARI 1040
7 Najee Harris • PIT 1035
8 Joe Mixon • CIN 1034
9 David Montgomery • DET 1015
10 Raheem Mostert • MIA 1012
Stats courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference

-The study would likely conclude that:

The NFL has undergone a dramatic offensive transformation, shifting from a run-first approach to a pass-dominant philosophy.
This change is driven by improved passing rules, advancements in quarterback training, and a growing emphasis on scoring points quickly.
While running backs remain valuable, their role has evolved to complement the passing game rather than serve as the offense's focal point.

-Further Exploration:

The study could be expanded to analyze additional aspects of offensive evolution, such as:

Changes in offensive line play to accommodate pass protection needs.
The rise of analytics and its impact on playcalling strategies.
The increasing popularity of specific formations and route combinations.
By examining these factors, the study would provide a more comprehensive understanding of the dramatic shift in NFL offenses over the past four decades.